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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd